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With the status of the markets today I would say we are now at or very nearly at the bottom of the drop. It will likely sit and fluctuate for another week or two where it is before starting a more consistent up trend. It may go up starting now (already started actually) OR more likely it may take longer for this good move to stick. But unless there is something else about to come along to negatively affect the market I think we are mostly done with the consistent loosing. I am looking for a certain result in one of my investments to drop it (poor performer for many years and should have dropped it over a month ago) and then will reinvest that plus more in the stronger investments I have.
 

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@rjs987 :
Do the drops track independently of the intensity or extent of the epidemic?

I don’t understand how it works - external correction methods always seemed “false” to me, but maybe I’m focusing on people/things which might be barely relevant for making-money-from-money
 

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rjs987

Do you ever gamble on falling stocks .....short selling ?

Here’s a good summary of the questionable puts that happened prior to 9/11

 

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Discussion Starter #84
The Nazi party was about the only group that won during the 1929 market crash. They invested in certin funds, sold the funds to investors (Short) and then when the market failed the Nazi's had the cash.
 

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@rjs987 :
I don’t understand how it works - external correction methods always seemed “false” to me, but maybe I’m focusing on people/things which might be barely relevant for making-money-from-money
Not understanding how it works is encouraged .....your gut level feeling is correct but not how their ball bounces.

Come on mate lay your money down and get with the game...just kidding.
 

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Gamble? Not really. I don't do short selling or short anything.

Market drops are related to any global pandemic. The connection is not so solid as would sometimes seem. It's more about how a pandemic may possibly effect business and economy in ways that may hurt that business or economy. The flu outbreaks that happen every year may result in many more numbers of people getting sick and even dying from it, but it seems the markets are immune to that kind of event since "we" have a handle on what causes it and how it will run its course. Covid19 has had so many unknowns to it and has struck so rapidly and the devastation has been so great, considering how sick people get with it and the unknown nature of it and how it it transmitted, at least at first, there was a really big effect with businesses and especially as everything began shutting down to attempt to prevent the spread. This translated in the big fall of the markets seen globally. So I would say normally that the markets do track independently of the pandemic itself. But it is dependent on how businesses are doing. The oil war that started up at the same time as the pandemic made things much worse economically... at least at first. Then there is also the panic that investors tend to exhibit. If everyone who is invested in any way in the market were much more level headed and didn't panic sell then the big drop may not have been much to really notice. But there are so many novices and emotional investors in the markets the result we see is inevitable.

I still consider myself to be a novice investor, but I have learned a LOT in the last 20 years. As a result my own net worth has gone up more than 800% in that time. About 1/3 of my current net worth can be attributed to living mostly on the amount of only one of our incomes and saving the other. That means we've been saving on average 40% of our combined incomes. A lot more than experts recommend as minimum to have enough for retirement. The other 2/3 of my net worth is due to investing. I've always said that it is true that you have to have some money to make some money. But once you have some money to make money with, you do have to make that money work FOR you. You actually lose money if you rely on only savings interest and sometimes even if only relying on CD interest once you factor inflation into it. The only way to make more money with any kind of investing is to do what is needed to bump the gain up well over inflation. More like 4-8%. I like mutual funds since they take very little management and are easy to get into these days. So that's what I have the most of. Some stocks make money faster, but I'm fine with an average of 6-8% gains that I get over the last 20 years.
 

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rjs987,
“Leave the politics to the politicians since there are equal numbers of liars and cheaters on BOTH sides of the isle and ALL have ulterior motives in mind with everything they propose. And only some of it accidentally, it seems, benefits US.”

I’m in total agreement Right Wing, Left Wing .... Both Keeps the Bird of Prey a Flying.
I absolutely disagree.

In case anyone doesn't realize it, the statement by rjs987 is partisan and political.

At this point in time, one party controls the Executive Branch and half of the Legislative Branch. They're in charge, except to the extent that the House of Representatives (half of the Legislative Branch) can put up roadblocks, do limited oversight, and perhaps push a few of their priorities.

Saying "both sides are crooked" hides the fact that the one side that could have stopped this and might just be making things even worse, didn't stop it and might be making things worse.
 

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Past experience saw hurricane Katrina "victims" bringing their survival money to Florida and spending it in casinos, I am not impressed with the American public's responsible spending of cash rescue funds,
I constantly see food program funds used to buy sugar water, cakes cookies chips and children going hungry to school for their 2 meals (also free) a day. The federal govt does not bear all the blame for waste. Some smart guy said, give everybody equal amounts of money, soon it will be back in the hands of those who had the most to start with. My drunkneighbor has already asked me for a loan against "his" $2,000.00 and a ride to a liquor store that sells lotto tickets, he was just gonna buy tickets, and was gonna walk home. I declined ,, gracefully.
 

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$2 Trillion is enough to give every person in the US $6000, yet the Government is only promising $1200 per adult and $500 per child. Where is the rest of the money going?
 

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Walmart will make a killing selling cheap t.v.s and pot-pies.
 

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The dirty secret about welfare programs in general (not necessarily this bailout; it has a slightly different purpose that I'll get into later) is they're not designed to get people out of poverty.

No, they're not intended to be a trap, or to buy the votes of the poor. They're there to solve the political problem posed by the poor. As long as the homeless population is out of sight, and you don't trip over someone as you go to open your shop in the morning, and there aren't big news stories about starving children or lots of dead people, that's success.

That's because the problem from a political perspective isn't homeless or starving people -- they don't vote, for the most part. The problem is homeless and starving people inconveniencing the people who do vote, either directly (concerns about crime and property values) or indirectly (conscience). And these problems are solved at the lowest cost and with strict conditions (that become a trap) because the programs don't exist for the people being helped, they're for the people who are voting to help.

There was a situation back in the late '80s or early '90s that illustrates this perfectly. It turned out that junior enlisted troops (might have been just E-1 but I think it also affected E-2s) with three or more children actually qualified for food stamps while drawing full pay, allowances, and benefits because the dependent allowance was capped at two children or something of the sort. The military's solution? Those troops -- and only those troops -- got a special allowance that was exactly enough to keep them from qualifying for food stamps. This was for less than they would have gotten from food stamps, of course.

This program was a success. That's because the problem from the military's point of view wasn't that they had young troops with hungry kids, the problem was that there were news reports about them having young troops with hungry kids.
 

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For me, I'm staying "pat" in the market. I'm still drawing dividends on my stocks even though they have crashed. I'll wait it out, and have full confidence in our president and his administration!
 

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Discussion Starter #94
I am the OP and wished it would not get political but some must keep expressing theirs.

I am one that does not think the sitting President has much to do with the current market down turn. Nor do I think he had much to do with the last 3 years of gain because the gain trend was started before he took office. Before he took office I was netting 9-11 % and in the last 3 years I have been getting about 10-12%.

Big fricken deal.

But if I average all 3 years and the latest month I have lost much more than the few that think his leadership gained.
 

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I look back about 20 years (when I finally somewhat figured the money/investing thing out and really started seeing my net worth climb). In spite of all the ups and downs (mostly ups by far) I've seen an average gain of around 8% per year INCLUDING the results of the last month. The pandemic and the oil war combined to make this last month happen as it did more than administrative policy. The nation's economic strength that I still believe exists will bring us back to a better place... though it may take a year or two to get there. The upward climb always lasts far longer than the fall. Historically anyway.
 

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Ah war, didn't I make a pile of money while that was happenin! Paid off a divorce, a car, house, and put a little cabbage in a jar in the backyard, good old days!
BTW my neighbor reports methamphetamine price climbing, good investment vehicle :(
 

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Hopefully when this lockdown ends and we start entering the new norm we'll see the stock market bounce back. Someone told me the two driving forces of the stock market are fear and greed.
 

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Those aren't the only forces driving the stock market... fortunately. But they are big ones.
 

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I, too, read a variety of sources. I usually will follow Fox News but will cross reference with other sources for the same info such as CNN, Reuters, CBS Market Watch and others. I just like how Fox puts things better than the others (after seeing the same news reported elsewhere) since they are relatively conservative and I am a conservative. I also read a lot from my local news broadcast stations (online websites). They pull from sources all over as well so I do get a variety of source material just from them.
Our economic recovery is so dependent on the track the Virus Pandemic takes. This is true in every country around the globe. This article is from CNN posted on my local CBS TV News affiliate web site:
How quickly can the US economy bounce back? That depends on the virus

I've read similar reports in the last many weeks. The recovery I see coming I think (IMHO) is a modification of the "U" shaped recovery mentioned in this article. The financial expert from whom I read about it calls it a "W" shaped trend. There are several other financial experts who have mentioned about the same type of trend. We already had the fast drop for one side of the "W" and are currently in the midst of a very dirty center spike or spikes. I anticipate possibly 2-3 spikes, maybe more for some time before the start of the rise for the other side of the "W" launches. Some of these spikes may have drops equal or nearly equal to the bottom we've already seen... maybe... or maybe not. Depends on the virus. I do think the rise on the other side will be more rapid than most other recession recoveries but still much slower than the drop.
 

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Is there anyway to play the oil futures a year or two out ?
 
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